Value Betting Strategy with AI Football Tips

Using Artificial Intelligence or AI football predictions opens up the Value football betting strategy which can be a successful long term betting strategy for all. At DiceLoader.com we provide the exact data you need to employ this strategy. Using our statistics, the latest odds within the site and combining them with percentage based AI and Machine Learning generated predictions provides the members of the DiceLoader Club with the exact tools they need for a successful Value betting strategy.

But what is the Value betting strategy I hear you say?

In football predictions and tips, Expected Value (EV) or Value is an indication of what the better will get in returns if they place the same bet over and over again over the longer term. If it is a positive value, the better will make a profit. If it is a negative value, the better will make a loss and the bookmaker will make a profit.

That all sounds simple. Unfortunately there are many variables in football betting that make it hard to accurately predict Expected Value which therefore typically makes it harder to use as a viable strategy. Thankfully the DiceLoader Club does all the hard work and gives you the exact data you need to employ the strategy effectively.

To explain EV further, let’s take a coin toss example. There are two outcomes (heads or tails) and both have a 50% chance of occurring (on a non biased coin that is). If the bookmaker offered you odds on the coin toss of 2.0 (or Evens) and you placed 100 bets at £10 each, you would expect to come out about even money (50 wins with a £10 profit each for a £500 profit in total, balanced out by 50 losses costing you £10 each for a £500 loss). The Value of the odds on this coin toss bet would be 0 (zero). The odds and the predicted outcome match.

If a chancer of a bookmaker wanted to attract a crazy amount of bets and offered a price of 2.2 (or 6/5) for the coin toss, and you managed to place 100 ‘heads’ bets at £10 each, you would expect to come out with £100 in profit (if the coin behaved in line with the probability and had 50 heads and 50 tails). The Value of each of these bets would be 1.00. Notice this is a positive number.

The same bookmaker quickly realises the error of their not so cunning plan and drops the price or odds immediately. For the same bet, the odds are now 1.8 (or 4/5). A very generous and/or foolishly confident better places another 100 ‘heads’ bets at £10 each. Unfortunately for the better they end up with a loss of £100 (50 wins with a £8 profit each for a £400 profit in total, negated out by 50 losses costing you £10 each for a £500 loss). The Value of each of these bets would be -1.00 (negative 1). The bookmaker is relieved.

The Expected Value, or Value, or EV, tells you when placing your bet that if you were to repeat the same bet over a significant amount of times, then are you going to make a profit or a loss (given the percentages of outcome are known and accurate enough). Finding and placing positive Value bets is a key part of the long term strategy.

If all we bet on was tossing a coin, or rolling a dice that isn’t loaded, we could really use Value information to form a great long term betting strategy. But we’re not, we’re betting on football. There are a lot of variables and a huge amount of statistics that make it incredibly hard to predict accurately. If only there was a site which used AI and Machine Learning technology to provide you with an accurate percentage likelihood of an outcome for all the main football betting markets? If only there was a site that not only generated percentage outcomes for all main betting markets but had been refining it’s accuracy over many years? (you can see where we’re going with this). Thankfully at DiceLoader.com there now is.

For each of our predictions or tips, we show you the percentage likelihood of each outcome. These percentage likelihoods have been generated by our Data Scientists employing the latest AI and Machine Learning technology combined with data and statistics from over one hundred thousand football matches (and growing) to refine the technology and accuracy over time. At DiceLoader.com we also use the latest odds from our bookmakers and display the appropriate price next to each predicted outcome. These two items of data then allow for our members at the DiceLoader Club to see the Value of each outcome. It’s as simple as that.

Within the members area of the site each of our predictions is displayed within a table with the same structure as can be seen below:

Our members see the AI generated Probability of that outcome with the Prob column, the Historic Success Rate of bets with a similar probability with the HSR column, the Price from our bookmakers data and then the all important Value column. In the above example, for the top row (Match Odds) you can see the price is such for the prediction that it has a positive Value. For the lower row (Over 1.5 Goals), not so much, and we have a negative Value. The Value figure is based on a £10 bet.

For the top row if you placed 100 bets over the season at £10 each on predictions with the same Probability and Price, and the result came in at 64.6% as predicted, you would end up with a £104 profit.

For the lower row, another 100 bets over the season at £10 each, and again on predictions with the same Probability and Price but that came in at a higher 83% of the time, you would end up with a £79 loss.

The availability of this information in our members area is incredibly powerful. It allows our members to employ the Value strategy over time and to find those predictions that have that wonderful positive Value field.

The members area also has tools that make it easy to filter across all leagues, fixtures and markets for predictions that have the Value you are looking for. It really does give our members a great advantage.

Why not take up this advantage? We are currently offering a free week trial for new DiceLoader members. Why not sign up here and enhance your football enjoyment with our powerful insights and data across all major domestic football leagues and fixtures.

This article is a one of regular free articles we post at DiceLoader. Along with articles, we also regularly post detailed statistics and insights from across all the major football leagues. These free, sample statistics are just examples of the content that our members have greater access to within the members area of the site. We also provide free selected football predictions and tips each week. All of this information can be found here. In addition to this, we have a free regular newsletter which contains the above and more. Why not sign up here for regular Ai based football tips, statistics and insights newsletter to?

14th December, 2023